Peak Oil - A proven theory?
With gas prices continuing to be high and no indication that they will fall substantially any time soon, the United States and other countries are looking for other ways to obtain fuel, without depending on countries in the Middle East, who are constantly in conflict. There was a theory established fifty years ago that attempted to predict what peak oil production would be in all areas of the world. Could this theory help us in our current situation?
Peak oil is a theory that concerns the long-term rate of extraction and depletion in conventional petroleum and other fossil fuels. This theory is named after American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert who created a model of known reserves, and proposed, in a paper he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956, that production of fuel from conventional sources would crest in the continental United States between 1965 and 1970, and worldwide within “about half a century” from the time of publication of the report. United States production peaked in 1971. The crest of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1962. Some estimates for the date of worldwide peak oil production, made by Hubbert and others, have already passed. This has led to criticism of the theory’s method and predictions. Supporters of peak oil theory suggest Hubbert’s model did not account for the 1973 and 1979 OPEC shocks, which effectively reduced demand, thus delaying a world crest.
Opinions on Hubbert’s peak oil range from optimistic predictions that the market economy will produce a solution, to predictions of doomsday scenarios of a global economy unable to meet its energy needs.
The Energy Information Administration predicts no peak oil consumption before at least 2025. The International Energy Agency makes a similar projection. Since the global petroleum supply is finite, alternative energy sources must be found in the future. Most critics instead argue that the crest will not occur soon and that the form of the crest may be irregular and extended rather than a dramatic curve in peak oil.
In any case, it is wise for everyone in this country to find ways to improve fuel economy in our cars and our home and to find alternative energy sources such as solar power. For instance, an increasingly popular alternative to gasoline-fueled cars are hybrids. These are safer for the environment as well.
For more information on the peak oil theory and how it is affecting our world today, do some research online. You can also find information on hybrids and other ways to improve fuel economy so that we are not so dependent on fossil fuels.